What N.F.L. Week 11’s Classic Rivalry Games Revealed About Potential Contenders
Week 11 Sunday brought a few blowouts and some key missed kicks, but it was highlighted by a couple of classic rivalry games: the Bills knocking off the Chiefs, the Packers surviving in Chicago and the Steelers outlasting the Ravens.
STEELERS DENY THE GAME-TYING 2-PT CONVERSION.
📺: #BALvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: pic.twitter.com/Vzrz2wUyIu— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
The AFC North is heating up, the Packers might be readying for another late-season run and the race for the AFC’s final playoff spot is wide-open. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
In your mind, does the Chiefs’ loss in Buffalo (paired, perhaps, with the Ravens’ loss in Pittsburgh) change the way you view the AFC hierarchy?
Jones: Things are deliciously intriguing at the top of the AFC. The Chiefs beat the Ravens to start the season, the Ravens thumped the Bills in Week 4, and now the Bills deliver a convincing win over the previously undefeated Chiefs on the same day that the Ravens lose to the Steelers (who will play Kansas City in Week 17 but will not face Buffalo this regular season). What does it tell us? Any of these top teams are capable of beating the other, and this race for the top seed and home-field advantage could come down to the wire. I still have the Chiefs as the top team in the conference — I will not bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the postseason. From there, I’ll still go Baltimore as No. 2 despite the tough divisional loss to Pittsburgh — a game it should have won. From there, Buffalo No. 3, edging the Steelers out by a nose.
Nguyen: Not really. The Bills won a competitive game at home. The Steelers won a close game in which Justin Tucker missed two field goals. We have to remember there is a certain amount of luck in every game, no matter how good teams are. I’ll get concerned if the Chiefs and Ravens drop another game next week, but losing in competitive games against very good opponents shouldn’t drastically change how we view teams. The Bills do get a bump up in my book, but until they can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, I still think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Bills won similar games against the Chiefs in the regular season in 2022 and ’23, and the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl.
Pompei: The Bills have won six straight, which makes them the hottest team in the AFC, if not the best. Week by week, they have continued to build their case. The Steelers have the second-longest win streak in the AFC with five straight victories, which means they should be in the conversation about the best team in the AFC North. But the Chiefs, despite their loss, still deserve as much respect as any team. Just because they aren’t the 1972 Dolphins doesn’t mean they won’t be in the Super Bowl — or win the Super Bowl again. And as much as any of the contenders, the Chiefs have the potential to get better as the season goes on, as they are expected to have some important players return from injuries.
Does Sunday’s wild win in Pittsburgh tell us more about the Steelers or Ravens when it comes to AFC contenders?
Jones: I think it tells a lot about both teams. Let’s start with the Steelers. As impressive as their start to 2024 was, I tried to reserve judgment until they played a top-level team. Outside of Atlanta, the Chargers and Washington, the Steelers hadn’t played any other teams with winning records; none of their first nine opponents were considered elite. Baltimore certainly fit the “elite” billing, as it boasted the league’s most prolific offense, led by two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But the Steelers defense largely held Baltimore in check — that juggernaut Ravens offense had nearly 120 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than its season averages. Henry entered Sunday averaging 112 yards per game and managed only 65 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. The Steelers also forced three turnovers. They did receive a gift in the form of two missed Justin Tucker field goals, but Pittsburgh made plays on both sides of the ball, displayed grit as all great teams do, and proved that it is indeed one of the best teams in the AFC.
As far as Baltimore goes: This game featured all kinds of elements that should spark concern within the organization. Tucker’s misses stood out, but they certainly weren’t the only reason the Ravens lost. Three turnovers and 12 penalties also factored heavily. Baltimore has a talented team, but the Ravens can’t expect to win games against elite opponents if they repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. This loss will come back to haunt the Ravens when it’s time for playoff seeding.
Nguyen: This game told me a lot about the Steelers; it was just another ode to the culture that Mike Tomlin has built in Pittsburgh. This was an ugly, hard-hitting game with intensity. The game was won on plays that were finished with a little more effort, like Nate Herbig’s strip of Derrick Henry or rookie Payton Wilson ripping an interception away from Justice Hill on a downfield route. The Ravens drove the ball into Pittsburgh territory several times, but the Steelers dug their heels in and kept the Ravens out of the end zone all but once. They got some help with two Tucker misses, but I was impressed with the Steelers’ resolve. I think the Ravens are the better team, but that goes out of the window when these rivals play each other.
Pompei: I’m not sure we learned much more about either team in what was a typical AFC North November slugfest. Both are quality teams, though they didn’t always look like it on Sunday. If the Steelers and Ravens played next week, the Ravens might win 18-16. And then if they played again the week after, the Steelers might win 18-16. It’s that kind of rivalry. We will learn a lot more Dec. 21 when these teams meet in Baltimore in a game that could decide the AFC North. Then again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them paired in the playoffs. If that scenario plays out, we will be in for a treat.
Does Bo Nix have a chance to challenge Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors?
Jones: Daniels got off to an impressive start to the season; he displayed great accuracy as a passer and fantastic running ability, and Washington looks like it has a really good chance to break its four-year playoff drought. But Daniels has cooled off a bit ever since that rib injury, and Washington has now lost two straight — just a hiccup, or are defenses starting to figure out Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense?
Meanwhile, Nix is surging. He looks so comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense and has multiple-touchdown performances in three of his last four games. This week, he had both his first 300-yard outing and his first four-touchdown performance to help the Broncos improve to 6-5. If he keeps delivering performances like this and helps Denver snap its nine-year playoff drought while Daniels struggles to recapture his early season form, Nix certainly could challenge.
Nguyen: It will be an interesting battle as we go down the stretch. Kingsbury’s offenses have a trend of starting hot and then falling off toward the end of the year. Some of that has to do with quarterbacks (Kyler Murray then, Daniels now) taking too much of a burden as runners and scramblers, and defenses catching up to the simplicity of the offense. We’ll see if that trend continues with Washington, or if he can evolve his offense to avoid a fall-off.
Nix looks to be getting better every week, and Payton is dialing up plays to get guys wide open for him. Payton has obviously had a longer track record of success, so I feel a bit better about the Broncos offense continuing to get better, which would give Nix a strong chance of winning Rookie of the Year. I believe Daniels is the better player, but stats and offensive success will obviously have a huge impact on who wins the award.
Pompei: The award will be decided over the next six games, but Daniels has a considerable lead. If Nix were a stock, analysts would rate him a “buy” because he has considerable growth potential, as we’ve seen in recent games. That isn’t to say Daniels would be a “sell.” He’s a “buy” as well. It’s going to be difficult for Daniels to be as impressive in the final six games as he was in the first 11. Daniels’ last two games probably were his worst two, but he is very capable of finishing strong. These are two solid young quarterbacks who should win a lot of games in the NFL.
Last year, the Packers came on late in the year and ended up winning a playoff game — and almost knocking off the 49ers in the divisional round. Does this year’s team profile similarly?
Nguyen: This Packers team is better than last year’s edition. The defense isn’t elite, but is an improved unit under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Last season, the offense took off down the stretch. This offense hasn’t looked as explosive as last season, but the Packers have dealt with a lot of injuries — including Jordan Love missing multiple games. If the Packers’ passing game improves, they have the defense to make them a legitimate contender in the NFC. The inconsistency of Love and his promising group of young pass catchers is maddening but they feel close to a breakout. To be able to still win seven games with the injuries and offensive inconsistencies shows that this team has many avenues to winning games.
Jones: I think a lot of it depends on Love. He was fantastic down the stretch last season. This year, however, he’s struggling with ball security, having thrown at least one interception in every game he’s played in this season. This is right about the time he heated up last year, throwing 18 touchdown passes and one interception over the last eight regular-season games (Green Bay won six of those games). I think this team has the ability to contend in the playoffs. The Packers offense is more well-rounded, and their defense is better. But Love is the key to how far they can go.
Pompei: These Packers could be better than those Packers, but only if Love can start playing more like he did a year ago — and there is reason to believe he can improve now that he’s healthy. He threw his 11th interception of the season Sunday, which tied his total for all of last season. That pick came in the end zone and could have cost the Packers the game. Their defense has been better (though it wasn’t very good against the Bears Sunday). The key as the weather turns could be their running game, which should be improved with Josh Jacobs.
A month from now, are we going to be talking about the Dolphins, Colts, both or neither as competing for the seventh seed in the AFC?
Pompei: The competition for the last wild-card spot in the AFC could come down to the Dolphins, Colts, Bengals and Broncos. The Dolphins might have more potential than the Colts because they could be buoyed by Tua Tagovailoa’s return. They have a manageable schedule down the stretch, with three games that look really challenging — at Green Bay and Houston, and home against the 49ers. The Colts have an easier road, as they should have a decent chance of winning every remaining game with the exception of next week against the Lions. The wild-card for them is reliant on the play and development of Anthony Richardson. If he plays like he did Sunday, the Colts very well could be in the playoffs.
Jones: I think it’s possible that both will be in the running. There’s very little margin for error, but both teams seem to be figuring things out and playing better than they did early in the season. The Colts defense has improved, and on Sunday Richardson executed better than he did prior to his benching. The Dolphins offense is far more effective now that Tagovailoa is back; he gives them hope. Looking at the schedules the rest of the way, the Colts (5-6) have winnable games in four of their next six contests (they play the Lions, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars). They’re likely not beating the Lions, and the Broncos are iffy. But the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars are all very winnable. That means, they’re looking at 9-8? Maaaaybe 10-7?
Meanwhile, the Dolphins (4-6) have a little bit of a tougher road. They have realistic shots at beating the Patriots, Jets, Browns and Jets again, but the Packers, Texans and 49ers will be tough matchups. While they might be in the mix late, 8-9 isn’t likely going to get the job done. And of course, this is all hinging on the Broncos, currently the seventh seed, faltering. They have the Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs remaining.
Nguyen: The Colts defense has been improved after an abysmal start to the season, but I still don’t trust them. Richardson played one of the best games he’s played in the pros on Sunday but I still want to see more consistency from him (though it is certainly exciting to see how much he’s improved with his footwork and accuracy since his time on the bench). The Dolphins look to have the best chance to get into playoff contention. Tagovailoa is back and, although he hasn’t been as productive as he’s been when Miami’s offense was at its peak, he’s playing at a very high level.Tyreek Hill isn’t 100 percent and defenses have taken away the middle of the field, but in the last two games Tagovailoa has made several game-changing plays outside of structure.
The Dolphins defense seems to have found its stride. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is from the Mike Macdonald tree and that system takes a little time to learn because players have to learn everyone else’s job. Once they do, they can mix and match personnel and assignments and really confuse offenses. The Dolphins defenders look like they are getting to that point. This is a dangerous Miami team.
(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Getty Images)
