How a Day of Chaos and Upsets Changes the College Football Playoff Picture

And now, 20 Final Thoughts from Week 13, when four of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s top 16 teams lost to opponents with 5-5 or 4-6 records.

1. No. 5 Indiana finally played its big game against No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday and lost by 23 points. Yet, by night’s end, the Hoosiers found themselves in much better shape to make the Playoff than … Alabama.

2. Don’t let SEC flacks tell you after Saturday, “This just goes to show you how tough it is to win in this conference.” Not this year. No. 7 Alabama (8-3, 4-3 SEC) lost 24-3 at Oklahoma (6-5, 2-5), a team that has spent much of the season struggling to find the end zone. No. 9 Ole Miss (8-3, 4-3) lost 24-17 at Florida (6-5, 4-4), which until recently wasn’t sure its coach would make it to 2025. And No. 15 Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2) went down 43-41 in four overtimes at Auburn (5-6, 2-5), even though its distinguishing trait this season has been its ability to cough up turnovers.

Even after all that, the Aggies can still reach the SEC Championship Game if they knock off No. 3 Texas (10-1, 6-1) next week. They’d face No. 10 Georgia (9-2, 6-2), which clinched its berth on a day when it faced UMass. If that matchup happens, it would be the most combined losses in an SEC title game (five) since 2007.

A conference that assumed it would be getting at least four, if not five berths to the first 12-team Playoff may now find itself with a maximum of three.

3. Alabama’s loss — the first game since 2011 in which it did not score a touchdown — was unspeakably bad for first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, who has overseen the program’s first three-loss regular season in 14 years. The Tide finally had cleansed the stench of October losses at Vanderbilt and Tennessee and could write their ticket to Atlanta. Instead, a swarming Oklahoma defense pressured Jalen Milroe (11 of 26 for 164 yards) into a three-interception night, while the Sooners’ 127th-ranked offense saw freshman running back Xavier Robinson (18 carries, 107 yards, two touchdowns) and quarterback Jackson Arnold (25 carries, 131 yards) run all over the Tide.

This was a seminal win for third-year Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, whose midseason switch to Joe Jon Finley as offensive coordinator paid off. But unless Alabama still backdoors into the CFP, the first season of the post-Saban era officially will go down as a disaster.

4. Since losing 32-31 at current No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) has answered its biggest questions. They were all on display in the Buckeyes’ 38-15 drubbing of No. 5 Indiana (10-1, 7-1). Quarterback Will Howard, whose late clock-management gaffe doomed the Buckeyes in Eugene, has been impressive since. He finished 22 of 26 for 201 yards and two TDs with one tipped pick Saturday. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was criticized for his defense’s inability to get to the quarterback against Oregon, but it has had 18 sacks in the five games since, including five Saturday. And, of course, popular punching bag Ryan Day emerged from that Oregon game with a 2-6 record against top-five foes. He has doubled his top-five wins since (Penn State and Indiana).

Ohio State’s biggest question remains its offensive line, though the Buckeyes did not miss injured center Seth McLaughlin in this one. Even so, Ohio State will be a popular national title pick come Selection Sunday.

5. The Hoosiers, who close with 1-10 Purdue next week, present one heck of a riddle for the committee. On the one hand, they likely will finish 11-1, with 10 blowout victories, while playing in a major conference. On the other hand, at most three of Indiana’s 11 wins will have come against bowl-eligible teams, and even those three likely will be 6-6. And then, in the one chance the Hoosiers had to prove themselves against an elite opponent, they lost big.

Still, they’ve only lost once, and we’re down to eight Power 4 teams that can say that. The best guess is the committee will drop Indiana to No. 10, below 9-2 Tennessee and Georgia and just behind 10-1 SMU.

Safe for now, with almost no breathing room.

6. The good news for Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is he no longer has to worry about his team reaching the SEC Championship Game, losing and getting knocked out of the Playoff. The Rebels just skipped right to the last part.

Ole Miss committed every self-inflicted wound imaginable in Gainesville. Twice on fourth-and-1 deep in Gators territory, Kiffin called a direct snap to 325-pound defensive tackle JJ Pegues. He was stuffed on both. And given two chances in the last 3:58 to send the game to overtime, quarterback Jaxson Dart threw two inexcusable interceptions.

Barring a miracle, the most hyped Ole Miss team in a generation will spend the holidays at the Citrus/Gator/Las Vegas bowl. Florida will, too, but that’s a big victory given Billy Napier’s job status only a few weeks ago.

7. When the Big 12 opted to expand from eight teams (after Texas and Oklahoma left) to 16, it inadvertently created possibly the flattest conference ever assembled. There are no alphas and no doormats, just 16 programs that can beat any of the others in a given week. And now, those teams have produced a perfectly fitting stretch run. Four teams — Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State — sit tied atop the standings at 6-2 in league play. And none of them play each other next weekend.

If all four win their last game, the Sun Devils and Cyclones will meet in Arlington. But what chance do you give that happening?

8. Kansas (5-6, 4-4 Big 12) is the living embodiment of Big 12 parity. Ranked in the preseason Top 25, the Jayhawks limped to a 2-6 start before upsetting 7-1 Iowa State. And then upsetting 9-0 BYU. And then, on Saturday, likely ending the Playoff hopes of No. 16 Colorado (8-3, 6-2) in a 37-21 rout. Kansas, led by veteran tailback Devin Neal (37 carries, 207 yards, three TDs), played bully ball, running for 331 yards against the Big 12’s third-best rushing defense entering the weekend.

It’s an abrupt turn of events for Deion Sanders’ team, which entered that game on a four-game winning streak with its eyes on a Big 12 title. Barring everything breaking their way next week, stars Shedeur Sanders (23 of 29 for 266 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions) and Travis Hunter (eight catches, 125 yards, two touchdowns) may be playing their last college games Friday against Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8).

9. Arizona State has had a hard time through the years building fan loyalty in its pro sports market, but second-year coach and alum Kenny Dillingham is doing everything possible to change that. Led by star running back Cam Skattebo (28 carries, 147 yards, three touchdowns), the No. 21 Sun Devils (9-2, 6-2) jumped to a 21-3 halftime lead against No. 14 BYU (9-2, 6-2) before hanging on for dear life. They prevailed 28-23 only after a premature field storming and a BYU Hail Mary attempt that was caught just short of the end zone.

Arizona State, 3-9 a year ago, was picked to finish last in the conference. It may beat that by 15 spots.

10. No. 22 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2) has gone 112 years since its last conference championship, and for a brief moment against Utah (4-7, 1-7), it looked like the drought might continue. The Utes, down to fifth-string quarterback Luke Bottari, drove 91 yards to take a 28-24 lead with 5:51 left. But Cyclones counterpart Rocco Becht is no stranger to late-game drives. Iowa State went up 31-28 with 1:31 left, then Utah’s Cole Becker missed a 54-yard field goal attempt to tie.

Iowa State is in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win next week, but it has the toughest remaining game of the four contenders, against 8-3 Kansas State. “Farmageddon” does not usually have such high stakes.

11. Any hopes of a service academy crashing the CFP likely ended Saturday when No. 6 Notre Dame (10-1) humbled No. 19 Army (9-1) 49-14, ending the nation’s longest winning streak at 13. The Irish defense was just too good. Army was averaging an FBS-best 334.9 rushing yards but had 207, including 71 on its last garbage-time drive. Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love needed just seven carries to rack up 130 yards and two scores (he also caught a touchdown pass). And so, it’s down to 6-5 USC standing between the Irish and a CFP first-round home game.

The Black Knights still have plenty ahead of them: They’ll play for the AAC championship on Dec. 6 against Tulane and then, of course, face Navy. But even were Army to knock off the Green Wave, it’s doubtful it would finish ranked higher than the Mountain West champion.

12. Seeing all those SEC road teams go down Saturday should elicit some appreciation for No. 4 Penn State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten), which survived 26-25 at Minnesota (6-5, 4-4) despite digging itself an early 10-0 hole. The Nittany Lions ran out the clock with a six-minute drive in which they converted three fourth-and-one situations, including a daring James Franklin call. Penn State faked a punt from its 34-yard line with freshman tight end Luke Reynolds breaking off a 32-yard run.

Speaking of tight ends, I’ve been including Penn State’s Tyler Warren on my Heisman Trophy straw poll ballot for the past few weeks. That won’t change after he caught eight passes for 102 yards.

13. Seven programs have moved up from a Group of 5 league to a Power 5 league since 2011. The first six all finished below .500 in conference play in their first year. The seventh, No. 13 SMU, has yet to lose in conference play. The Mustangs (10-1, 7-0 ACC) clinched a spot in the ACC championship game with a 33-7 win at Virginia (5-6, 3-4). SMU has won eight straight games, including its last three by double digits, and it looks like a more complete team with each week. The committee has not been impressed with the Mustangs, but with teams above them losing, they’re moving into potential at-large territory, win or lose the conference.

14. SMU’s opponent in Charlotte will be No. 8 Miami (10-1, 6-1) if the Canes win at Syracuse (8-3, 4-3) next week or No. 17 Clemson (9-2, 7-1) if Miami loses. The Canes broke open a close game in the fourth quarter to run away from Wake Forest 42-14, holding the Demon Deacons (4-7, 2-5) without an offensive touchdown after the first quarter. This season has been a long time coming for Miami fans, who’ve spent most of the past 20 years in purgatory. This is the program’s first 10-win season since 2017, and even that team lost three in a row to end the season. The 2024 edition is aiming for a more satisfying ending.

15. All those SEC teams losing Saturday introduces the possibility of the ACC getting a second CFP berth. If Miami and SMU both go into the conference title game at 11-1, it would be surprising if the loser fell out of the field.

And then there’s Clemson.

Dabo Swinney’s team, which handled The Citadel 51-14, should move to the cusp of the top 12 on Tuesday heading into a home showdown with current No. 18 South Carolina (8-3). Should the Gamecocks win, they could get blocked out by their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, but Clemson could have a shot if someone takes an unexpected second loss next weekend.

16. No. 12 Boise State (10-1, 7-0 Mountain West) clinched a berth in the Mountain West Championship Game, which it will host, with a harder-than-expected 17-13 win at Wyoming (2-9, 2-5). Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty briefly left with an injury but came back out to finish with 169 yards on 19 carries, becoming the first FBS 2,000-yard rusher in five years. (He’s now at 2,062.) Jeanty will be playing on championship weekend, but with Colorado losing, his top Heisman competition, Colorado’s Hunter, might not be.

Boise State now seems to have a real chance to finish above the Big 12 champion and earn the No. 4 seed and the accompanying first-round bye. Keep an eye on how high No. 21 Arizona State moves up on Tuesday.

17. Well folks, they did it. The Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-5, 3-5 Big Ten) are going to a bowl game for the first time since 2016, ending the longest drought of any Power 4 team.

Nebraska, which entered Saturday having lost four straight games, avoided one of its patented last-minute losses by hammering Wisconsin (5-6, 3-5) 44-25, ending a 10-game losing streak to the Badgers. A whole lot of demons slayed in one afternoon. Now, Wisconsin has its own streak on the line. Luke Fickell’s team needs to beat Minnesota next week to avoid the program’s first losing season since 2001.

18. USC (6-5, 4-5 Big Ten) did its best to salvage an otherwise miserable season with a 19-13 win over rival UCLA (4-7, 3-6) at a half-full (half-empty?) Rose Bowl. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has not been spectacular since taking over the starting job two weeks ago, but he has made plays when needed. USC’s go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter came when Maiava was flushed nearly to the sideline but found his footing and hit Ja’Kobi Lane in the end zone. Next week, the Trojans have a heck of a step up in competition: No. 6 Notre Dame heads to L.A. with a CFP berth in its sights.

19. The first Pac-2 Championship Game ended dramatically, with Oregon State’s Everett Hayes kicking a 55-yard field goal with 20 seconds left to lift the Beavers (5-6) to a surprising 41-38 win over Washington State (8-3). Oregon State had lost five straight games, most recently a 28-0 head-scratcher against Air Force. Now it has a chance to go bowling, but it would have to win Friday at Boise State. Wazzu’s season has taken a disappointing turn since getting to 8-1 and No. 18 in the CFP rankings. First, it lost a heartbreaker at New Mexico and now this, despite the continued heroics of quarterback John Mateer (250 yards passing, 75 yards rushing, four TDs).

20. Finally, Cal (6-5, 2-5 ACC) won its fourth consecutive Big Game, 24-21 over rival Stanford (3-8, 2-6). The Bears had been trailing all game until engineering a 98-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:40 left.

On one hand, these were two programs far from national relevance, marginalized by realignment, playing a game on ACC Network that likely no one outside of their fans watched. On the other hand, this was a season- and career-defining game for those involved, as evidenced by Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s extremely emotional and eloquent postgame interview.

Highly recommend.

The full Fernando Mendoza post game interview after defeating Stanford

I’m not crying, you are#CALGORITHM #GOBEARS pic.twitter.com/5EPIiq7uwM

— c (@calgoldnbears) November 23, 2024

(Photo: Brian Bahr / Getty Images)